Which state is most likely to lose a congressional district after the next congressional reapportionment following the 2020 census?

The state most likely to lose a congressional district after the next congressional reapportionment following the 2020 census is New York. This is due to several demographic trends and population shifts that were observed during the last decade.

New York has been experiencing a population decline in recent years, which is influenced by factors such as high living costs, outmigration to other states, and lower birth rates. The apportionment of congressional seats is based on population, so states that lose population relative to others will see a reduction in their congressional representation.

In contrast, states like California and Texas have seen significant population growth, which indicates that they might gain congressional seats. Vermont, being a smaller state with a stable but not growing population, does not have the same risk as New York when it comes to losing districts after reapportionment.

Overall, New York's population trends, particularly in comparison to other states, make it the most likely candidate to lose a congressional district.